April 2025 presents a pivotal moment in the condominium market cycle. After 14 months of price adjustments and changing buyer sentiment, key indicators suggest a market inflexion point. Projects like Faber Residence have seen prices stabilise after declining 8% from their peak, raising the critical question on buyers’ minds: Should they purchase now or continue waiting? This analysis examines current market conditions against historical patterns to determine if today represents an opportune buying window.
Price indicators point to the market bottom
Current condo pricing metrics strongly suggest a market bottom has formed. After 14 consecutive months of price declines ending in February, March and April, data show stabilisation with modest 0.5-1% monthly gains in most segments. This pattern mirrors previous cycle bottoms, where 12-15 months of decline typically preceded recovery. Price-to-income ratios have returned to historical norms after reaching unsustainable levels in 2023. The median condo now sells for 4.3 times median household income, down from 5.7 at the peak and closely aligned with the 20-year average of 4.2. This fundamental affordability restoration typically precedes sustained recovery periods.
Price reductions on listed properties have decreased significantly, with only 28% of current listings showing reduced prices compared to 52% six months ago. This shift in seller behaviour indicates growing confidence that further price cuts won’t be necessary to attract buyers, a reliable signal that opportunistic buying windows may be closing.
Buy-rent gap creates immediate advantage
The monthly cost comparison between buying and renting has shifted dramatically in favour of buying. The payment differential between purchasing and renting for a typical two-bedroom unit has narrowed to just $175 monthly, compared to a $450 gap at the 2023 market peak. After accounting for tax benefits, many buyers break even or come ahead on monthly cash flow from day one. Rental increases are accelerating, with average condo-equivalent rents rising 4.8% over the past six months. This rental pressure increases opportunity costs for those delaying purchases, especially when considering locked-in ownership costs versus continuously growing rental rates. First-time buyer calculations look particularly favourable under current conditions.
Supply constraints signal a limited buying window
New condo construction has plummeted 64% from 2022, with developers halting projects due to financing constraints and economic uncertainty. This severe construction contraction indicates limited new supply over the next 24-36 months, setting the stage for potential inventory shortages by late 2026. Inventory absorption rates have accelerated over the past 90 days. The market has shifted from 5.8 months of supply in January to 3.9 months, approaching the 3-month threshold traditionally defining a balanced market. Buyers will face increasingly competitive conditions if this absorption trend continues within the next quarter.
The weight of evidence suggests that now represents an exceptionally favourable time to purchase condos. The combination of stabilising prices, favourable affordability metrics, limited future supply, and historical cycle patterns indicates the market has reached an inflexion point. Buyers acting in the current environment likely secure advantages in price, selection, and negotiating leverage that will diminish substantially over the next 6-12 months as the market transitions from buyer-favourable to balanced conditions.
